A Relief Rally for BTC/USD and ETH/USD?


Bitcoin, BTC/USD, Ethereum, ETH/USD – Technical Outlook:

  • Bitcoin remains confined within a narrow range.
  • Ethereum could stage a minor rally.
  • What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch?

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BITCOIN SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL

Bitcoin appears to be setting an interim base for now and could be gearing up for a minor rebound in the short term. However, there is plenty of resistance ahead that could cap any rebound.

Over the past few months, BTC/USD has been holding around quite strong support at the June low of 17590. Despite the hold above the support, BTC/USD has yet to see a meaningful turnaround in momentum. Most recently, there are tentative signs of renewed upward momentum. Any break above immediate resistance at the early-October high of 20465 could open the way towards the September high of 22774. Major resistance is at the August high of 25201, near the 200-day moving average.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

A decisive break above resistance at 25201 could pave the way towards the May high of 32376. However, the odds of such a move seem low for now. There is a good chance that BTC/USD could reverse its gains if it gets close to the August high as the broader downtrend remains intact. A failure to break above immediate resistance at 20465 could expose downside risks towards 17590.

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ETHEREUM SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – BULLISH

While BTC/USD could be forming a double bottom at the June and September lows, ETH/USD is in the process of staging a higher low this month, relative to its June bottom. A higher secondary low (relative to the previous one) in ETH/USD versus a potential double bottom in BTC/USD is a reflection of the relative strength of the former cryptocurrency.

ETH/USD Daily Chart

image2.png

Chart Created Using TradingView

From a relative perspective, ETH/USD Daily charts seem to be one step ahead of BTC/USD. Not only did the former make higher lows in September-October (relative to its own June low), but it has also risen above resistance at 1421. In contrast, BTC retested its June low and is yet to break above its immediate resistance.

The next resistance is on the 200-day moving average (now at about 1725), followed by the September high of 1790. Major resistance is at the August high of 2031. ETH/USD could find it tough to crack 2031, at least in this move. On the downside, 1220 is initial support, with stronger support at the June low of 879.

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— Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for DailyFX.com





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