Economic calendar for the week 07.03.2022 – 13.03.2022


Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (07.03.2022 – 13.03.2022)

The dollar strengthened following the results of the past week. The US Department of Labor said last Friday that the NFP employment rose by 678,000 in February, well above the 400,000 growth forecast, while unemployment fell to 3.8%. The forecast was 3.9%. The previous NFP indicator was also revised upwards, from 467 thousand to 481 thousand. Immediately after the publication of the report by the Ministry of Labor, the DXY dollar index rose, exceeding 98.80 and a 21-month high. In the coming days, the DXY dollar index will probably exceed the psychologically significant level of 100.00 and continue to grow. Meanwhile, the main competitor of the dollar on the currency market fell in the EUR/USD pair below 1.0900 immediately after the publication of the NFP. The euro remains under strong pressure ahead of the ECB meeting next week. The growth outlook for the European economy has worsened due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has exacerbated supply chain problems and inflationary pressures. The crisis in Ukraine will force the ECB to postpone steps towards policy normalization to a later date. At the same time, macro data coming from the US speaks in favor of the fact that the Fed will still tighten its monetary policy, bringing the interest rate to 2.0% by the end of 2022, according to economists. Thus, the dollar retains its leadership, and investors prefer it as a defensive asset among other things.

In addition to the ECB meeting, next week market participants will also pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from Germany, the Eurozone, Japan, the US, China, and Canada.

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, March 7

07:00 EUR Retail sales in Germany

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany showing the change in retail sales. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Previous values: -5.5% (0% yoy) in December against +0.8% (+0.5% yoy) in November, +0.5% (-2.9% yoy) ) in October, -1.9% (-0.6% yoy) in September 2021.

The data indicate the instability of the recovery of this sector of the German economy, including due to lockdowns due to the coronavirus. Better-than-expected data is likely to have a positive impact on the euro, but only in the short term. Forecast for January: +1.5% (9.5% in annual terms).

Tuesday, March 8

10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter (final estimate)

GDP is considered an indicator of the overall health of the economy. The growing trend of the GDP indicator is considered positive for the EUR; a low result weakens the EUR.

Recently, macro data from the Eurozone have been indicating a gradual recovery in the growth rate of the European economy after a sharp drop in early 2020.

Thus, according to the forecast of economists, GDP growth in the Eurozone is expected in the 4th quarter of 2021 by +0.3% (+4.6% in annual terms) after an increase of +2.2% (+3.9% in annual terms ) in the 3rd quarter, +2.2% (+14.3% y/y) in the 2nd quarter and falling by -0.3% (+1.3% y/y) in the 1st Q4 2021, down -0.7% (-4.9% YoY) in Q4 2020, up +12.5% ​​(down -4.3% YoY) in 3- Q2, down -11.8% (-14.7% YoY) in Q2 and down -3.6% (-3.1% YoY) in Q1 2020 .

If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast and / or previous values, the euro may decline. Better-than-expected data may strengthen the euro in the short term, although the full recovery of the European economy even to pre-crisis levels is still far away.

22:15 AUD Speech by the head of the RBA Philip Lowe

In his speech, Philip Lowe will assess the current situation in the Australian economy and point out the further plans for the monetary policy of the department.

Market participants would also like to hear Lowe’s views on central bank policy amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and Australia’s first recession in 30 years.

Any signals from him regarding changes in the RBA’s monetary policy plans will cause a sharp increase in volatility in the AUD and the Australian stock market. If he does not touch upon the topic of monetary policy, the market reaction to his speech will be weak.

23:50 JPY Japan GDP for the 4th quarter of 2021 (final estimate)

GDP is considered an indicator of the general state of a country’s economy and assesses the rate of its growth or decline. The report on gross domestic product published by the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan expresses in monetary terms the total value of all final goods and services produced by Japan over a certain period of time. An upward trend in GDP is considered positive for the national currency (yen), while a low result is considered negative (or bearish).

In the previous 3rd quarter, the country’s GDP decreased by -0.9% (-3.6% in annual terms) after rising in the 2nd quarter by +0.5% (+1.5% in annual terms) and falling in the 1st quarter by -1.0% (-3.7% in annual terms).

The data point to the uneven recovery of the Japanese economy after its collapse due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

 However, the forecast implies that in the 4th quarter of 2021, Japan’s GDP grew by +1.3% (+5.4% in annual terms), which is a positive factor, primarily for the Japanese stock market. Better-than-expected data is likely to help the Japanese stock market rise.

Wednesday, March 9

01:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The National Bureau of Statistics of China will present regular monthly data reflecting the dynamics of consumer prices in China. Rising consumer prices could trigger an acceleration in inflation, which could force the People’s Bank of China to take measures aimed at tightening fiscal policy. Strengthening growth in consumer inflation may cause appreciation of the yuan, a low result will put pressure on the yuan.

The Chinese economy, according to various estimates, is already the largest in the world, pushing the US economy to second place. Therefore, the publication of important macroeconomic indicators of this country has a significant impact on global financial markets, primarily on the positions of the yuan, other Asian currencies, the dollar, commodity currencies, as well as Chinese and Asian stock indices. China is the largest buyer of raw materials and a supplier of a wide range of finished products to the world commodity market.

In December 2021, the growth of the consumer inflation index amounted to -0.3% (+1.5% in annual terms), and in January +0.4% (+0.9% in annual terms).

The deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, including the decline in consumer inflation, may adversely affect the positions of the yuan, as well as commodity currencies such as the Canadian, Australian, New Zealand dollars. To a greater extent, this applies to the Australian dollar, since China is Australia’s largest trade and economic partner.

According to the forecast, the consumer price index is expected to grow in February by +0.4% (+0.6% in annual terms).

The growth of the consumer inflation index will have a positive impact on the quotes of the yuan, as well as commodity currencies. However, data worse than expected and the relative decline in the CPI may negatively affect them.

Thursday, March 10

12:45 EUR ECB’s rate decision. ECB’s monetary policy statement

The ECB will publish its decision on the key rate and on the deposit rate. Tough position of the ECB on inflation and the level of key interest rates contributes to the strengthening of the euro, a soft position and lower rates weakens the euro. Despite the rise in inflation in the Eurozone, according to the ECB management, the balance of risks for the economic outlook for the Eurozone “remains skewed to the negative side.”

The rise in Covid-19 infections and the spread of the omicron strain are clouding the short-term outlook, threatening further supply disruptions and provoking consumer caution, economists at IHS Markit said.

Unlike the Fed, the ECB is likely to refrain from making any changes to its monetary policy in the short term. The ECB is likely to confirm that the PEPP program will end in March, but it will be replaced by another €300bn purchase program to ensure a smooth transition to a smaller asset purchase program, economists said.

After Brexit, trade conflicts, factors of political instability in Europe, as well as the growing coronavirus pandemic, due to which European countries are forced to introduce new quarantine restrictions that negatively affect economic activity, are the main threats to the European economy. A new factor of instability in Europe is the military conflict in Ukraine. According to the calculations of ECB economists, the military conflict in Ukraine could reduce the GDP of the Eurozone by 0.3% -0.4%. Under the worst-case scenario, GDP will shrink by almost 1%. A significant increase in the inflation forecast for 2022 is also possible. The first ECB interest rate hike is now not expected before 2023, while December of this year was previously scheduled.

Probably, following the results of this meeting of the ECB, the key interest rate will remain at the same level of 0%. The ECB’s commercial bank deposit rate is also likely to remain at -0.5%. For the time being, the ECB prefers to refrain from raising interest rates.

 13:30 EUR ECB press conference

The press conference will be of major interest to market participants. In its course, a surge in volatility is possible not only in euro quotes, but also in the entire financial market, if the ECB leaders make unexpected statements. The ECB leaders will assess the current economic situation in the Eurozone and comment on the bank’s decision on rates. In previous years, as a result of some meetings of the ECB and subsequent press conferences, the euro exchange rate changed by 3% -5% in a short time.

The soft tone of statements will have a negative impact on the euro. And, on the contrary, the tough tone of the speech of the representatives of the ECB leaders in relation to the monetary policy of the central bank will strengthen the euro.

13:30 USD Consumer Price Index (ex food and energy)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator for a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the US dollar, while a low result weakens it. In October 2021, the value of the indicator was +0.6% (+4.6% in annual terms), in November +0.5% (+4.9% in annual terms), in December +0.6% (+ 5.5% in annual terms), and in January 2022 +0.6% (+6.0% in annual terms), which indicates a strong increase in consumer inflation after the index fell in March and April 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic . If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast, the dollar is likely to react with a short-term decline. Data better than the forecast will strengthen the dollar. Forecast for February: +0.5% and +6.4% (in annual terms), which is likely to have a positive impact on the USD.

22:15 AUD Speech by the head of the RBA Philip Lowe

In his speech, Philip Lowe will assess the current situation in the Australian economy and point out the further plans for the monetary policy of the department.

Market participants would also like to hear Lowe’s views on central bank policy amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and Australia’s first recession in 30 years.

Any signals from him regarding changes in the RBA’s monetary policy plans will cause a sharp increase in volatility in the AUD and the Australian stock market. If he does not touch upon the topic of monetary policy, the market reaction to his speech will be weak.

Friday, March 11

07:00 EUR Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (final release)

This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.

Previous values ​​of the indicator: +5.1% in January, +5.7% in December, +6.0% in November, +4.6% in October, +4.1% in September, +3.4% in August, +3.1% in July, +2.1% in June, +2.4% in May, +2.1% in April, +2.0% in March, +1.6% in January and February, -0.7% in December and negative values ​​in the second half of 2020 (in annual terms). If the data for February turns out to be better than the previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data points to mounting inflationary pressures in Germany. Data worse than the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Forecast: +5.5% in February (according to the first estimate).

13:30 CAD Unemployment rate in Canada

Statistics Canada is to publish data on the country’s labor market for February. Unemployment has risen in Canada in recent months, partly amid massive coronavirus-related business closures and layoffs. Unemployment rose from the usual 5.6% – 5.7% to 7.8% in March and already to 13.7% in May 2020. If unemployment continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data turns out to be better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. Decreasing unemployment rate is a positive factor for the CAD, rising unemployment is a negative factor. In January 2022, unemployment was at 6.5% (against 5.9% in December, 6.0% in November, 6.7% in October, 6.9% in September and August, 7.5% in July, 7.8% in June, 8.2% in May, 8.1% in April, 7.5% in March, 8.2% in February, 9.4% in January 2021). Forecast for February: 6.2%.

15:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary release)

This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates growth in the economy, while a low level indicates stagnation. Previous indicator values: 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022, 70.6 in December, 67.4 in November, 71.7 in October, 72.8 in September 2021. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, and a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar. The data shows uneven recovery of this indicator, which is negative for the USD. Data worse than previous values ​​may have a negative impact on the dollar in the short term.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

Rate this article:

value ( count title )





Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.