Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1784.38 with a target of 1997.97 – 2070.98.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1784.38 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1722.24 – 1616.95.
Analysis: the third wave of larger degree (3) continues developing on the daily chart, with the fifth wave 5 of (3) forming inside. Wave iii of 5 appears to be completed, and a downward correction developed as the fourth wave iv of 5 on the H4 chart. Presumably, the fifth wave v of 5 started developing on the H1 chart, with the first counter-trend wave of smaller degree (i) of v formed and a local correction (ii) of v developing inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1997.97 – 2070.98 after the correction is completed. The level of 1784.38 is critical in this scenario as its breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1722.24 – 1616.95.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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